When it comes to evaluating the success of a video game marketing campaign, most reports still rely on surface-level numbers: installs, impressions, CPIs. But those numbers only tell part of the story. The question every publisher should be asking is: how many of those installs happened because of the campaign—and how many would have happened anyway? This is where incrementality and conversion uplift become essential.
In game marketing, especially around launch, the majority of spend goes into paid media—performance ads, influencer activations, trailers, takeovers. And yet, measuring the true effect of each of these efforts remains notoriously difficult. That’s largely because the nature of PC and console game campaigns means there’s no clean “before and after” to work with. Most campaigns start at day one, right when the game launches. There’s no organic baseline to compare against. But there is a powerful signal that marketers can use to build one: wishlists.
Wishlists are an early indicator of intent and demand. On platforms like Steam, they reflect not just visibility but future purchase potential. By analyzing pre-launch wishlist volumes—especially through smoothed averages over the final 7–14 days before release—marketers can establish an organic baseline. When coupled with genre-specific wishlist-to-install conversion rates, this becomes a predictive model for how many installs a game would have likely earned without any media push. From there, any installs that exceed this baseline can be attributed as incremental lift—in other words, installs generated directly by paid marketing.
This is exactly where TRACKS, Second Stage’s advanced marketing intelligence platform, brings clarity to the chaos. TRACKS goes beyond simple attribution by helping game marketers quantify conversion uplift at the campaign, channel, and creative level. By factoring in pre-launch wishlist behavior, real-time install tracking, and the nuances of campaign strategy—whether it’s influencer content, programmatic display, video ads, or performance media—TRACKS calculates the additional value created by each piece of marketing.
Rather than assigning installs solely based on last-click or platform reports, TRACKS introduces a framework for expected organic installs based on wishlists. It then measures actual installs post-launch, and calculates the delta—the true uplift—generated by paid efforts. Marketers can view uplift ratios for each media channel, format, and campaign type, offering deep insight into which strategies are driving not just clicks, but meaningful, incremental growth.
This is particularly powerful when campaigns are built with multiple objectives in mind. A video ad on YouTube aimed at awareness will have a different conversion timeline than a Meta campaign optimized for installs. Influencer content might not show immediate impact, but can create lasting organic ripple effects. TRACKS accommodates for this by allowing marketers to assign weightings to media types, apply performance benchmarks, and view performance in context—not isolation.
The result is a more accurate, actionable understanding of performance—one that moves beyond vanity metrics. With TRACKS, gaming companies can see not just where their budget went, but what it delivered that wouldn’t have happened otherwise. Incrementality becomes more than a buzzword; it becomes a core metric for assessing ROI, adjusting media mix, and optimizing future launches.
And most importantly, it brings transparency to conversations between publishers, developers, and media teams. When everyone understands where growth is coming from—and how it compares to organic potential—it becomes much easier to make strategic decisions with confidence.
In a launch-driven, high-stakes industry like video gaming, understanding what’s truly driving your installs is no longer optional. With TRACKS, incrementality becomes measurable, explainable, and a core part of campaign reporting.
Discover how TRACKS can help you measure what truly matters at secondstage.io/tracks.
